How GDP May Propel Boise Real Estate
Hopes soared on reports that the recession was coming to a close as the United States economy posted a healthy 5.9% gain and businesses invested to boost GDP. As the recession eases Boise real estate will be helped out by the positive news.
It was estimated that Gross Domestic Product would increase at a clip of 5.7%, instead it grew at a rate of 5.9% according to the Commerce Department, based on fourth quarter financial numbers. Not since summer of 2003 have we seen such a rapid pace of growth in GDP. The fastest quarter was the third quarter which posted a robust 2.2% growth rate. Adding these contributing factors in with local ones, will help stabilize the Boise real estate market.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 5.7% rate in the October-December period. It is looking like the first quarter of 2010 will not continue in the rapid pace of recovery shown throughout 2009, which had posted the most impressive numbers since the worst financial catastrophe since the Great Depression. Even thought consumer spending and the housing markets were down, the fact that businesses increased investment in software and equipment helped add some steadiness to the economy and allowed business to liquidate bloated inventories. This wan’t just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.
Growth was projected to be about 2.2%, but has been revised down to about 1.9%, which shows that growth has been due to reduced inventories and not so much a return of market demand. Inventory sales amounts were alarmingly reduced from $33.5 billion to around $16.9 billion in the final quarter. From July to September alone, they slid just over $139 billion. The change in inventories alone added 3.88 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. Such a dramatic increase has not been seen since the final quarter of 1987. With so many suppliers eliminating excess inventory, builders in the Boise real estate market were helped out.
For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4%, the biggest decline since 1946, the department said. Toward the end of 2009, consumer spending had to be reduced from the projected 2% to 1.7% in consumer spending. Although offset soon afterward, the “cash for clunkers” program drove GDP, by stimulating consumption, up by a respectable 2.8%. The disappointing news came from the consumer spending sector which added only a 1.23% GDP gain, which is low considering it is normally about 70% of GDP. As the national economy contracted, the Boise real estate market contracted right along with it.
The fourth quarter GDP numbers increased, despite a slumping commercial real estate market, due to significant investment in software and required equipment by businesses. Estimates for business investment came in at 2.9%, but rose dramatically to 6.5%, much higher than expected. In just the three months prior, it had slumped by just under 6%. With everyone watching the housing markets, projections of 5.7% were down graded to about 5% in the fourth quarter. It had grown at an 18.9% pace in the third quarter. On the back of stronger exports and imports, which left a trade gap adding .3% to the GDP, the fourth quarter boasted better numbers than otherwise anticipated. With GDP factoring in to nearly every facet of business, Boise real estate is not independent.
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March 3, 2010 1:30 am 
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