Hot Markets and Commodities, Yet The Small Investor Continues To Miss The Run!

All investors can recall the horror during the five months from October 2008 through early March of 2009 as day after day the markets continued to make new lows. That type of catastrophic drop leaves many psychological scars and probably spooked millions of investors out of the stock market for good. To wit, since the March 2009 lows and throughout this new Bull Market Cycle, Investors are pulling money out of equity funds in droves and piling into Bonds. This is the fight or flight mentality taking hold of the herd, and as they continue to disbelieve in the new bull cycle in stocks, the market continues to power higher.

I’ve long been a believer in Elliott Wave Theory, which was developed in the 1930’s by R.N. Elliott. He was a man decades ahead of his time, and to this day his work remains revolutionary in tracking and forecasting market and commodity trends and cycles. This theory forms the basis of my work for market forecasting and trading and investing. While the crowd continues to wait for the next crash, the Elliott wave patterns I’ve been outlining have continued to foretell a bullish move possibly of historic proportions. Taking advantage of this type of move means you need to tune out the noise from CNBC, all of the jobs data, and the negative mantra. Everyone knows that stocks climb a wall of worry, but you have to have a method to let you know to stay long and where best to invest during a super cycle Elliott Bull Wave pattern as we are in now.

My theory back in late February 2009 was that the market was about to bottom and nobody knew it. I wrote an article on 321Gold.com at the time to outline my reasoning and had a chart showing 1200 on the SP 500 as a likely target. At the time the SP 500 was trading around 720 and had not yet completed it’s drop to 666, but was within a few weeks. Interestingly to me anyways, at 666 the SP 500 bottomed and not randomly at all! That 666 figure was an exact 61.8% Fibonacci re-tracement of the 1974 lows to the 2000 highs Bull Cycle. Often crowds act in patterned behaviors that are formed around Fibonacci mathematics. Typical re-tracements are 38%, 50%, 61.8%, or even 78.6%. Combining Elliott Wave patterns with Fibonacci sequences allows me to confirm or help firm up a forecast. That drop over five Fibonacci months completed a multi year cycle from the 2000 highs to the 2009 lows, and it did so right at a clear Fibonacci pivot point. This is why I believe the next many years will be very bullish for stocks, and most investors will not be on board.

Those Fibonacci and Elliott Wave patterns gave me the heads up to start turning bullish, coupled with the sentiment readings which were equally as bearish as the October 2002 bottoms. In addition, there was way too much discussion about deflation. The rubber band in essence was stretched so far to one side on the sentiment gauges and deflation talk, that it would only take a slight shift towards inflation to move stocks much higher.

Fast forward to October 2010, and we now see the ravages of inflation becoming very apparent some 18 odd months later. Gold is at $1350 per ounce, Silver is at $24, the SP 500 is heading back to 1200, Corn, Sugar, Coffee, Copper are all at huge highs. What investor’s don’t understand is stocks are one of your best asset classes in the earlier periods of an inflationary shift, what I would call an inflationary period of prosperity worldwide. Elliott Wave patterns most recently that I outlined on my market forecast service alerted my subscribers to prepare for a massive bull run once the 1094 area on the SP 500 was crossed to the upside.

Given the understanding that inflation would become the new trend, we took multiple positions in Gold stocks and Rare Earth metals stocks ahead of the curve. Some of our recent picks included Hudson Resources at 63 cents in August, now trading at $1.30. Others include BORN at $8, a Chinese Corn based producer of Alcohol that ran to $19 within 7 weeks. We were investing in Rare Earth stocks almost 12 months ago, including REE at $1.80, and it’s now trading over $13.00 a share! Even up to the present time, my ATP service has been positioning our subscribers into Tasman Metals at $1.54, now $2.28 and Quest Rare minerals at $4.10 now $5.50. These moves are happening in stunningly quick periods of time, so being positioned ahead of those moves is crucial.

Gold and Gold stocks have obviously had a very strong move to the upside. Back in August of 2009 I forecasted a massive five year advance in Gold and Gold stocks. This again was entirely based on Elliott Wave patterns I recognized and crowd behavior. Investors will recall the 13 year bull market in tech stocks that started in 1986 when Microsoft went public, and ended in 1999 when AOL was sold to Time Warner for 150 billion. Well, the first five years of the Tech Bull nobody participated except the early investors. Intel and Dell also went public, along with EMC and others. By the time 1991 rolled around, investors kind of woke up and start buying. The problem was they were late, missing the first five years. At that point Tech stocks bucked and kicked up and down with no net gains for three years. Investors gave up again in 1994, and then we began a torrid 5 year rally to 1999. It was not until the last 12 months of that rally that everyone piled in, herd behavior in it’s finest form. Well, we are seeing the same patterns now in the precious metals areas of the market. The final 5 years started in August of 2009, kind of like 1994 in tech stocks. The first 5 years were 2001-2006 where Gold funds returned 30% compounded per year, by the time everyone got on board the funds did nothing for then next three years. Everyone gave up and lost interest, and that was the August 2009 buy signal.

Bringing us full circle, investors continue to shy away from this stock bull market following the five month crash of nearly two years ago. This is exactly the psychology present in an early stage bull market. Going forward from here, I look for the SP 500 to hit 1220 at the top of an Elliott Wave three from the 1040 lows in the summer. That will be followed by a correction pattern and then we will resume the advance to new highs on this bull market stretch from March of 2009. Gold should work it’s way up to $1480-1520 if I’m right on it’s bull move from the $1155 lows this June. Below we have a chart of the SP 500 on a long term basis, and it is currently in the third wave up from the 1010 lows on July 1st. This wave pattern is powerful and should run to at least 1220 intermediately. In time, this multi-year bull market could power to all-time highs and really upset the Bears.

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How To Trade A Volatile Market

At Active Trading Partners, we take a different approach to trading than most online services in terms of advising our subscribers. Our methodology revolves around behavioral characteristics of the crowd, and taking advantage of the extremes in sentiment, whether bullish or bearish.

In the case of ETF trading, we often work with 3x Bull or Bear ETF’s like BGZ, ERY, ERX, TZA, TNA and so forth. Using a combination of Fibonacci re-tracements and Elliott Wave theory, we look for high probability set-ups and extreme overbought or oversold situations to trigger a trade recommendation. A most recent example with ETF’s was a short position we took against the rising energy stock index, the XLE. This index had become incredibly overbought in just a few weeks, and looking at prior topping indicators and fibonacci trading day cycles, we felt it was a “Low Risk” bet to short the rally. We recommended ERY at $45.40 as the XLE headed over $56 and was becoming overbought. Within 7 days we had a 15% plus gain by going against the crowd. I saw a 13 fibonacci day trading rally at extremes, so we used the XLE chart below, to identify the timing to enter into ERY.

We use the same approach when it comes to trading individual stocks. We look for “Waterfall decline” reversal patterns, which are somewhat proprietary for ATP and our methodology. This method reduces our entry risk because we are buying stocks that have already taken a recent short term multi-day or even multi-week hit as investors have exited the stock. Recent examples include buying DCTH, a former high flier that fell from $16 down to $5.80 when ATP advised purchase. Within days the stock bottomed and ran to as high as $9 within a few weeks for a 50% move. Another example is OREX, who took a hit in concert with VVUS several weeks ago. We felt the sell-off was overdone and recommended the stock at $4.01, after it dropped from $6. The stock ran back to $5.30 within 10 days for a 30% plus gain.

Trading in a volatile market means you need to be patient, discerning, and wait sometimes for an oversold or overbought condition before you act. Sometimes acting early can cause you to get spooked out of positions that end up being profitable, but only after you panic sell out at a loss. At ATP, we use a “tranche buying” methodology which tries to help with the emotional side of entering or exiting a trade. We recommend 1/3 or 1/2 positions at a time, even if we are really confident in our entry point. This way just in case you mis-timed the bottom of your target by one or two days, which often happens, you reserve some powder to add additional capital into the trade to work your way in over several days. We also advise that our partners enter into these tranches over 24 hours of trading time, perhaps buying 3-4 times into our position especially on minor pullbacks. How many times have you bought into a trade entry at say $5.00 a share, and two days later the position bottomed at $4.50, you close it for a loss, and then it runs to $6? Using a tranche buying methodology keeps your emotions in check and you actually look for a bit further dip as a benefit, not a detriment to your trading.

We also adjust our stops as the stock or ETF moves after we have completed our entry. The main goal as a trader or investor is to book profits and limit losses when you are wrong. Since our ego is often our worst enemy, adjusting your stops as the trade moves in your favored direction keeps you from gettting too giddy and letting a profit slip away. In addition, a reasonable stop prevents you from being over-confident and letting a small loss turn into a larger one. Another recent sample at ATP was buying into VITA, which was very oversold at $1.76-$1.80 ranges. We also though advised our partners take profits at $1.92-$1.97, with a nice and tidy 6-10% gain over 7-8 days of hold period. The stock then fell hard just a few days later to $1.64. Not taking profits would have meant wiping out all of your hard work and watching your paper profits turn into a “hoping for a rebound” position.

In volatile markets, don’t get off your game plan and try to keep your ego in check. Enter into your trades no matter how confident you are, slowly and over 24 -48 hours of trade time. Adjust your stops and prevent yourself from getting too greedy or giving away profits. Take your time, wait for set-ups, and also take a break every now and then…nobody needs to trade everyday.

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Gold Bullion Likely To Pullback Then Rocket Higher

Back in latter June I forecasted a big top in Gold, mostly due to the 5 wave structures up from the October 2008 lows to June highs, and the 5 waves up from February lows to June highs converging. We then dropped from 1243 at the time of the forecast to $1155, which was one of my potential “A wave down” rally pivots.

I expected a counter-trend rally or “B” wave up to 1212-1225. So, all of that worked out pretty well, until we hit $1238. Now, $1238 is a 78% Fibonacci re-tracement of the drop from $1265 to $1155. Normally, a re-tracement in a weaker market or sector is capped at 61.8% or 50%.

The strength of that counter-trend move caused me to go back and review my patterns a few more times. Most of this is pure instinct and experience, but I think $1155 was the low of the correction. It also looks like that was an A B C correction to $1155, and with the strong rally… it means we are likely beginning a new set of 5 waves up from $1155.

That brings us to my recent commentary for my paying subscribers that I was going to review the wave patterns and that we closed our Gold trading short position out several days ago with a small profit. It is a a good thing we did because Gold rallied hard from 1212 to 1243 since that time, catching some people off guard. At this time, Gold is quite overbought and due for a small corrective pattern. It would seem logical that after a rally from $1155 to $1243 roughly, that we would pull back 38-50% of that move, so I’m looking for a pullback to around $1200 plus , and then a rally. We could see new highs in Gold in the next few months, and $1300 is on the radar now.

In summary, I got the topping call right, the bottom pivot right, and the counter-rally pretty much right…. but I’m changing my views to BULLISH intermediately after a pullback, from BEARISH intermediately. Obviously the fundamentals for Gold have never been stronger, but I was expecting a deeper correction off the 21 month rally, and instead to me it looks like with Quantitative Easing 2 upon us that Gold buyers are really stepping up their gold purchases.

Below is an updated Elliott Wave based chart showing clear corrective (3 wave) patterns from December 2009, and bullish (5 wave) pattern from February through the June 2010 highs. We just completed a 3 wave correction to $1155, and now this is probably a short-term peak wave 1 up, with a mini-wave 2 down to $1200 or so to follow. Once done with a pullback, we could see a run to $1280 or so, and later over $1,300.

Markus is a professional Forex Signals trader, money manager and forex trading service provider. Trade live with the author of this article at ForexSignalLive.com

The Gold and SP 500 Bull Markets Continue To Leave Investors Behind

In my recent forecast updates for my subscribers and also in my free articles online, I have expounded on the virtues of Elliott Wave Theory, which I use as my linchpin for my short and long term views. To wit, back in August 2009 I made it clear that we would enter a five year period of a massive move up in both Gold and Gold Stocks. Gold was $900 an ounce at the time, and is now at $1360 an ounce. I made that forecast based on human behavioral patterns that go back centuries. Crowds love to all act like a swarm of bees flying together.

Everyone hates stocks or sectors when they are down, and the crowd loves them when they are up or going up. Investors like to chase stocks and sectors when they are up high and running near parabolic, but they don’t like to buy large dips or consolidations ahead of moves. Once you learn that Elliott Wave patterns and a few other indicators sprinkled in can give you a heads up on when the crowd is about to jump in, you can basically front run the crowds.

I digress and go back to the Gold Bull Market. The reason I knew in August of 2009 that from $900 Gold we would enter a five year “massive” Bull Run is due to crowd patterns. To refresh, I see Gold as being in a Fibonacci 13 year cycle up that started in 2001. The first five years not too many investors participate in the Bull Run because the prior 20 did nothing. By the time everyone realized in 2006 that Gold mutual funds had compounded 30% a year for five years, it was too late to jump in. Of course, that is when everyone started buying Gold mutual funds and stocks. The problem is the first move was over, and we had 3 Fibonacci years of chop with no net gains. The crowd gives up around the summer of 2009, and that is when I forecasted a huge five year move to come. So far Gold is up over 50% in 13 months and Gold Stocks are up well north of that. The junior stocks started expanding in volume and price months ago, and that should have been yet another wake up call to investors.

Near term in Gold I’m looking for this current power Elliott wave to land around $1485-$1492 before a strong correction, and the recent pivot at $1312 was yet another short term bottom which will be followed by the last leg up since the $1155 lows this summer. Investors are now waking up and buying Gold and Gold stocks, and this is part of the recognition period during the last 5 years of the 13 year cycle when more and more participants get involved. This is why this Gold Bull is just warming up and by the time it peaks out, it will be like 1999 in Tech stocks. The demand overseas for gold and obviously in China is likely to continue for many years to come, don’t be fooled by the various wave dips in sentiment.

The SP 500 on the other hand is very similar since the March 2009 lows. The Bears have continued to focus on Jobs reports and other ephemeral data and not the big picture. My opinion is the great bear cycle ended in March 2009 at 666 on the SP 500, at least for a several year cycle up. When we hit 666 it was an exact 61.8% Fibonacci re-tracement of the 1974 SP 500 lows to the 2000 SP 500 highs. It took about 8-9 years to correct that 26 year move, and the pattern fits with a “wave 2″ pessimistic Elliott Wave bottom. That is why the move since 666 has been stunning, because nobody sees it coming. The correction we had this summer I forecast in mid-April and ended on July 1st at 1010 on the SP 500. At the level of 1010, we had a 38% Fibonacci re-tracement of the March 09 to April 2010 13 Fibonacci month rally, and a 38% re-tracement of the 2007 highs to 2009 lows. Those types of patterns are not random and in fact are big clues to get long the market. The problem is those patterns are hidden amongst the noise of the markets, CNBC, and all of that useless data.

Currently we are in a 3rd Elliott wave up which began at the 1040 SP 500 pivot, and my forecast since has been for 1205-1220 before a corrective 4th wave down. Before it’s all over, the SP 500 may well test the 2007 highs on this new cycle up from March 2009.

Markus is a professional Forex Signals trader, money manager and forex trading service provider. Trade live with the author of this article at ForexSignalLive.com

Gold is bottoming and longs soon to be rewarded

My more recent forecasts for Gold were intermediately bearish from the $1390’s area as we saw a clear triple top breakdown from the 1425-1430 ranges about 8 weeks ago. However, the drop to $1310 fulfills a potential Fibonacci pivot low according to my Elliott Wave views on Gold, and investors can begin building long positions with the following views in mind if I’m right.

The rally up from the February 2010 $1,044 lows has been a large “Wave 3″ structure which is not yet complete. We have completed 3 of the required 5 waves for this structure, and the current correction is a 4th wave. This pattern looks like what I call or Elliott termed a “3-3-5″ pattern. This means you see 3 waves down, 3 waves up, and then 5 waves down to complete the correction. Note below the chart I sent my subscribers several days ago forecasting a possible pivot at $1310:

Now, as you can see above we did end up dropping back down from $1,345 an ounce to $1,310 last week and pivoted higher. This confirms a possible 4th wave bottom after a 7-8 week correction period. This type of movement works off the overbought sentiment levels of traders. In addition, we had the exchanges increasing position limits in the New Year and caused some additional liquidation selling.

The long term views now are for $1287 to hold as a worst case bottom in this 4th wave, and the 5th wave to begin if it has not already to over $1,500 per ounce at the next interim highs. I expect this could take quite a few months before we can even consider attacking the $1430 areas, but in time we should climb back above that wall. See my updated long term Elliott Wave based chart below. The general advise for traders is to take a long position with a stop at $1285, but add to your position on any tests of $1310 and down to $1287.

Gold is in a 13 Fibonacci year bull market. This is much like the Tech Stock bull from 1986-1999 in fact, and this would be similar to 1997 in the Tech Bull, still a lot of room on the upside to come for both Gold and Gold Stocks yet.

The Fibonacci 8 year period ended around $905 last August, which is when I forecasted a huge 5 year bull run in gold and gold stocks to commence. Don’t fall off the wagon on the shakeouts.

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